trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $28 | $0 | -1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $30 | $0 | -1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | -8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 08 | $30 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 27 | $8 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 26 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 08 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 07 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 06 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 06 | $8 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 13 | $4 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | May 07 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? | Apr 26 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio | Apr 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 21 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $24 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 07 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | Apr 07 | $1 | $0 | +19% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $12 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 22 | $14 | −$2 | -16% |
| Did Kanye sell his twitter account? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 10 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 09 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 28 | -4.0% | -13.1% | 46% | 4% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.1% | 4% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 0% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 0% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 0% | -34.1% |