Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46f9…9f14 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$363 (-16%) realized −$344 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 44% -15.6%
≤30d 27 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 44% -15.6%
≤90d 27 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 44% -15.6%
all 27 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 44% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 44% -15.6%
10% -27.8% 44% -23.7%
15% -34.8% 41% -31.0%
20% -41.2% 37% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$56 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$344
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 28¢ $45 $26 −$19 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $158 +$153 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$56 +109%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $46 +$56 +123%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $165 −$163 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $104 +$62 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $45 +$58 +130%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $46 −$45 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $20 −$19 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $46 −$46 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $171 −$168 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $71 +$99 +139%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Klugman Jun 18 $50 +$21 +42%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $50 +$17 +34%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 +$57 +152%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$43 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$52 +86%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $52 +$54 +105%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $46 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 33¢ $45 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $50 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half BUY 51¢ $306 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 50¢ $158 28h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $46 37h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $165 43h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $104 46h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 43¢ $45 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 57¢ $46 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 18¢ $45 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 33¢ $58 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 37¢ $20 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 37¢ $25 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $46 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $171 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $171 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $71 4d
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Klugman BUY Bouzkova 70¢ $50 4d
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp BUY Zandschulp 33¢ $17 4d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $67 4d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 74¢ $50 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 4d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $48 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 50¢ $81 5d
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 43¢ $38 5d
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.26 · official $27.21 (match) · 48 history records