Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x46f6…b9d6 tech 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,174 (+12%) realized +$833 · open +$341
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,698per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 94% +$723
world 6% +$95
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +16.0% +5.0% 100% 100% +5.0%
all 5 +1.0% -8.6% 80% 20% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 20% -2.7%
10% -17.4% 0% -12.1%
15% -25.3% 0% -20.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$3 · ×41.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×166.8 per $1 lost it wins $166.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$2,232
Realized+$833
Unrealized+$341
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage172d
Avg bet$1,698
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $1,891 $2,232 +$341 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $592 +$95 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 26 $2,926 +$254 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 28 $1,297 +$33 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 28 $1,500 +$95 +6%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jan 05 $10 −$3 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,231.74 · official $2,231.74 (match) · 14 history records