Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46f4…b937 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-23%) realized −$56 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$132
other 29% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -26.2% -33.2% 38% 38% -31.4%
≤30d 21 -26.2% -33.2% 38% 38% -31.4%
≤90d 21 -26.2% -33.2% 38% 38% -31.4%
all 21 -26.2% -33.2% 38% 38% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 38% -31.4%
10% -39.6% 24% -38.0%
15% -45.5% 14% -44.0%
20% -50.8% 10% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $30 +$10 +34%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$4 +14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 −$20 -28%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 −$2 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +22%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$16 -77%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$44 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 0m
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $35 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 23h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $3 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $22 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $26 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 31h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $28 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 55 history records