Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
46 0x46f4…b269 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$962 (-5%) realized −$962 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 39L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$137
sports 24% −$633
other 20% −$137
economics 9% −$24
politics 9% −$241
culture 5% +$210
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 1 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 3 -66.0% -69.2% 33% 0% -89.5%
all 46 -7.7% -16.5% 15% 11% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 11% -14.1%
10% -24.5% 9% -22.3%
15% -31.8% 2% -29.8%
20% -38.5% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$754) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$52 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$962
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage234d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 18 $169 +$3 +2%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 23 $1,276 −$1,276 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 20 $1,211 +$322 +27%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 11 $873 +$340 +39%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 04 $259 +$31 +12%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $141 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $699 $0 -0%
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 27 $704 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 23 $857 −$14 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $458 +$1 +0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $866 −$33 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 12 $743 −$8 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $746 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $194 −$1 -0%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 11 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $1,676 −$24 -1%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Feb 10 $36 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 09 $754 −$10 -1%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 09 $189 −$189 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 07 $1,521 −$18 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 04 $850 −$10 -1%
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 03 $1,075 −$137 -13%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 02 $145 +$41 +28%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Feb 02 $879 +$210 +24%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Feb 01 $901 −$23 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $308 −$1 -0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 26 $74 −$1 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 19 $77 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President event Jan 01 $159 −$3 -2%
US strike on Syria by December 31? Dec 21 $61 −$7 -11%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West? Dec 21 $64 −$4 -6%
Will ANO form a government after Czech election ? Nov 25 $22 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition Nov 22 $21 $0 -1%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Nov 22 $22 $0 -1%
Will Workday (WDAY) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 20 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Nov 20 $20 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Nov 20 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31? Nov 19 $27 −$6 -23%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Nov 19 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 19 $188 −$4 -2%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Nov 18 $158 −$79 -50%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Nov 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 06 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Nov 05 $33 −$10 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $173 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $169 31d
Spurs vs. Heat BUY Heat 35¢ $1,276 86d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 30¢ $39 88d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 79¢ $1,211 94d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 72¢ $873 101d
Mavericks vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 84¢ $168 107d
Mavericks vs. Hornets SELL Hornets 82¢ $82 107d
Mavericks vs. Hornets SELL Hornets 83¢ $8 107d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 88¢ $141 107d
Mavericks vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 83¢ $91 107d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 109d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 109d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $663 109d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $308 109d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 109d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $257 109d
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? SELL Yes 100¢ $704 110d
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 100¢ $704 111d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 88¢ $141 115d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 62¢ $843 115d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $857 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $152 115d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 78¢ $702 125d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 82¢ $734 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $735 126d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $743 126d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $746 126d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $746 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.56 · official $34.56 (match) · 151 history records