Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46f4…5352
world · 390 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$773 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$768 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$220
Realized−$768
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses254 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions30
Markets (closed)360 / 390
History coverage613d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 30 History 360 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$42
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 87¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 81¢ 69¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 68¢ 56¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 64¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 55¢ 32¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? No 92¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $44 +$7 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $52 +$14 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 +3%
NATO article 5 before 2027? Jun 04 $50 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $65 +$7 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $5 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 31 $24 +$2 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $16 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $1 $0 +31%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? May 28 $5 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $40 +$7 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $38 +$7 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% −$681
other 24% +$29
politics 18% −$173
tech 1% +$95
crypto 1% +$3
sports 1% −$26
finance 0% −$25
economics 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $103 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $25 20h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $25 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $58 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 45h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 100¢ $51 4d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 6d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $5 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 81¢ $1 6d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec SELL No 90¢ $65 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.2% +2.5% 83% 50% +4.1%
≤30d 59 +2.4% -7.3% 86% 25% +4.0%
≤90d 122 -22.8% -30.1% 63% 22% -22.6%
all 360 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 35% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 35% -14.5%
10% -20.2% 22% -22.6%
15% -27.9% 14% -30.1%
20% -35.0% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.54 · official $219.32 (match) · 1035 history records