Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x46ee…5e7b other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$119 (+22%) realized +$122 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$127
sports 11% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +12.2% +1.5% 52% 52% +10.9%
≤30d 21 +12.2% +1.5% 52% 52% +10.9%
≤90d 21 +12.2% +1.5% 52% 52% +10.9%
all 21 +12.2% +1.5% 52% 52% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 52% +10.9%
10% -8.2% 52% +0.3%
15% -17.1% 52% -9.4%
20% -25.2% 43% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +54%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$40 +158%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$50 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$6 -12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$6 -61%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$12 +237%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $81 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $44 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $4 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 5d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $18 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 6d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 6d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.82 · official $46.82 (match) · 44 history records