Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
46 0x46ed…cfa6 sports 322 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,084 (-10%) realized −$2,082 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%156W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$186
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$2,678
world 6% +$286
other 5% −$70
culture 2% −$100
crypto 2% +$330
finance 1% +$117
politics 1% +$40
economics 0% −$21
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +91.8% +73.5% 75% 75% +47.9%
≤30d 4 +91.8% +73.5% 75% 75% +47.9%
≤90d 4 +91.8% +73.5% 75% 75% +47.9%
all 319 -0.6% -10.1% 49% 48% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 48% -19.1%
10% -18.7% 48% -26.9%
15% -26.5% 40% -33.9%
20% -33.7% 35% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$62 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$2,082
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses156 / 163
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)319 / 322
History coverage258d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$94 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $12 +$8 +67%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Mar 16 $13 +$27 +203%
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? Feb 11 $4 +$6 +150%
Big Game: Coin Toss Feb 11 $5 +$5 +85%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds? Feb 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $280 −$280 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8PM ET Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5PM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $50 +$59 +117%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $140 +$42 +30%
UFC 325: Elliott vs. Micallef (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Feb 01 $20 +$19 +96%
UFC 325: Brundage vs. Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $120 +$34 +28%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $290 −$200 -69%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Feb 01 $10 −$2 -20%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 30 $100 +$52 +52%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $200 +$103 +52%
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $129 +$214 +166%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $400 −$400 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 324: Hokit vs. Freeman (Heavyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $10 +$4 +41%
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $25 −$25 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 324: Fugitt vs. Miller (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5) Jan 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-5.5) Jan 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $50 +$17 +33%
Miami vs. Indiana: 1H Moneyline Jan 20 $50 +$21 +43%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 20 $50 +$27 +54%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 20 $55 +$35 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 41h
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela BUY USA 69¢ $30 91d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 93d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win BUY Yes 33¢ $5 118d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win BUY Yes 33¢ $2 118d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win BUY Yes 33¢ $2 118d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win BUY Yes 33¢ $3 118d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 20¢ $60 128d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 33¢ $100 128d
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) BUY Patriots 53¢ $100 128d
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? BUY No 40¢ $4 128d
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 128d
Big Game: Coin Toss BUY Heads 54¢ $5 128d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5PM ET BUY Down $1 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $20 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $100 132d
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) BUY Patriots 50¢ $100 132d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Lopes 42¢ $200 136d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) SELL Volkanovski 59¢ $69 136d
O/U 4.5 Rounds SELL Under 43¢ $8 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.27 · official $348.27 · 705 history records