Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x46ea…a98f world 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$804 (+6%) realized +$796 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%69W / 26L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$54
14 days−$26
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$460
other 16% +$144
finance 12% +$57
politics 11% +$95
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 41 -16.2% -24.2% 54% 39% -5.0%
≤90d 91 -6.7% -15.6% 74% 35% -3.3%
all 95 -8.2% -17.0% 73% 34% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 34% -4.0%
10% -24.9% 11% -13.2%
15% -32.2% 3% -21.6%
20% -38.8% 3% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.13 per $1 lost it wins $4.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$852
Realized+$796
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses69 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)95 / 99
History coverage126d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? No 59¢ 62¢ $294 $308 +$14 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? No 85¢ 74¢ $300 $263 −$37 (-12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 78¢ 92¢ $150 $177 +$27 (+18%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 78¢ 81¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $163 +$50 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 25 $26 +$5 +21%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 22 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? Jun 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Jun 18 $176 +$5 +3%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $746 −$93 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $150 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 15 $73 −$10 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 10 $353 +$38 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 10 $252 +$27 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $635 +$98 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $75 +$26 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 −$21 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Jun 01 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$3 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +14%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? May 31 $51 +$5 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $150 +$8 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $170 +$17 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $300 +$97 +32%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 15 $301 +$12 +4%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $150 +$11 +7%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? May 09 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? May 09 $125 +$8 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 09 $300 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 78¢ $101 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? BUY No 85¢ $302 1h
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? SELL No 61¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 55¢ $88 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $31 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 78¢ $151 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 46¢ $26 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 46¢ $20 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 46¢ $31 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 79¢ $66 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 59¢ $51 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $248 3d
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $250 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL No 83¢ $181 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 74¢ $162 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 23¢ $50 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 45¢ $186 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $38 8d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 57¢ $59 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 28¢ $30 8d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 33¢ $36 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 80¢ $176 8d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 90¢ $166 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 30¢ $20 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 28¢ $10 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 26¢ $20 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 48¢ $65 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 30¢ $40 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $851.63 · official $851.64 (match) · 331 history records