Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46ea…7656 crypto 644 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$408 (-8%) realized −$415 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%353W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$7
14 days−$23
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$43
other 15% −$99
world 12% −$34
politics 2% −$84
tech 1% −$72
sports 1% −$16
finance 0% +$19
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +8.7% -1.7% 57% 54% -8.3%
≤30d 94 +2.2% -7.5% 51% 48% -17.1%
≤90d 138 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 51% -16.3%
all 624 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 55% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 55% -16.0%
10% -19.3% 48% -24.0%
15% -27.1% 40% -31.4%
20% -34.3% 32% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$415
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses353 / 271
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)624 / 644
History coverage162d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+104%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 64¢ 97¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $5 +$14 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$9 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $9 +$24 +256%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 +$8 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY 24¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 26¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 27¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.74 · official $151.74 (match) · 2274 history records