Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46ea…3201 crypto 158 markets active 3h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$984 (-6%) realized −$936 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%45W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,331
7 days−$1,757
14 days−$1,757
30 days−$1,757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1,038
other 29% −$1,143
sports 16% +$538
world 1% −$40
politics 0% −$29
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -37.6% -43.6% 21% 21% -22.8%
≤30d 66 -37.6% -43.6% 21% 21% -22.8%
≤90d 66 -37.6% -43.6% 21% 21% -22.8%
all 141 -19.6% -27.2% 32% 29% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 29% -17.5%
10% -34.2% 28% -25.4%
15% -40.5% 26% -32.6%
20% -46.4% 22% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$75 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1,993
Realized−$936
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses45 / 96
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions17
Markets (closed)141 / 158
History coverage107d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $105 −$5 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $101 $96 −$5 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $92 −$18 (-17%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$47 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$33 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$27 +132%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $205 +$107 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$510 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $780 −$638 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $238 −$145 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $422 −$100 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $358 +$164 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$612 +596%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $608 −$600 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $79 +$148 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $319 −$319 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $314 +$539 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $347 −$111 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $132 −$66 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,993.21 · official $1,993.21 (match) · 418 history records