Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46e9…31ff crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 63% 58% -14.0%
≤30d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 63% 58% -14.0%
≤90d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 63% 58% -14.0%
all 19 -10.5% -19.0% 63% 58% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 58% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 26% -22.3%
15% -33.8% 5% -29.8%
20% -40.3% 5% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 46¢ 68¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.92 · official $6.09 (match) · 71 history records