Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x46e9…c4e3 crypto 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$265 (+0%) realized +$267 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%122W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,451per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 22 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 70 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 124 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,774) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.48 per $1 lost it wins $10.48
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1,857
Realized+$267
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses122 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,451
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,859 $1,857 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,757 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,854 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,849 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,847 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,845 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,843 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,841 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,645 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 31? Jun 01 $193 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $1,836 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? May 28 $1,834 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 27? May 27 $593 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? May 27 $1,116 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 26 $1,828 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $1,826 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? May 24 $1,822 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? May 23 $1,819 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 22? May 22 $1,817 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $1,816 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $1,808 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $1,807 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,805 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,803 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $1,799 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,798 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 14? May 14 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14? May 14 $1,001 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $214 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 13? May 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 13 $1,701 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 12? May 12 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? May 11 $1,792 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 10 $1,790 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7? May 07 $1,788 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6? May 06 $1,786 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 05 $1,783 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 1? May 01 $1,781 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $1,779 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1,777 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $1,778 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 26? Apr 27 $1,776 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $1,774 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 24? Apr 25 $1,773 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $1,771 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? Apr 22 $1,769 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 17? Apr 18 $1,767 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16? Apr 17 $1,766 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? Apr 16 $663 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $1,100 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,859 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,252 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,854 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,849 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,847 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,845 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,843 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,841 16d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,645 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $63 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $66 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $65 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,836 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $1,834 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $122 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $583 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $848 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $268 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,828 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $1,826 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,822 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,795 26d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 26d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 26d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 26d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,742 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,857.13 · official $1,857.13 (match) · 363 history records