Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x46e5…e96f sports 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%77W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 226d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$1,298
other 40% −$1,275
sports 19% +$8
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -9.8% -18.4% 54% 54% -10.7%
≤90d 27 -6.3% -15.3% 67% 59% -9.9%
all 124 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 40% -74.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 40% -74.8%
10% -27.4% 27% -77.2%
15% -34.5% 21% -79.4%
20% -40.9% 19% -81.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$60 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses77 / 47
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)124 / 130
History coverage226d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $1 +$1 +56%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $406 −$124 -30%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $182 +$118 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz May 28 $1 $0 +34%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 28 $1 +$1 +65%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 28 $2 $0 +21%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 28 $1 +$1 +119%
Chisinau: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Nardi May 25 $1 $0 +42%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 05 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $1 $0 +5%
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Adam Walton May 05 $2 $0 +26%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 25 $1 $0 +4%
Oeiras 3: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Moez Echargui Apr 25 $1 $0 +26%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 25 $1 $0 +17%
Panthers vs. Islanders Apr 25 $3 +$2 +56%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Apr 25 $7 +$3 +52%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Shuai Zhang vs Linda Noskova Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 28 $4 +$1 +11%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 28 $4 +$1 +28%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 28 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $1 $0 +6%
Tigre 2: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Bautista Torres Mar 12 $1 $0 +45%
Sabres vs. Panthers Mar 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Tigre 2: Miguel Damas vs Gianluca Cadenasso Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Capitals Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Feb 27 $1 $0 +6%
Jazz vs. Hawks Feb 27 $6 +$2 +30%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Ostrava Open: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Katie Boulter Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Alexandra Eala vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Feb 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Feb 05 $1 $0 +13%
Red Wings vs. Utah Feb 05 $3 +$3 +75%
Celtics vs. Rockets Feb 05 $2 +$4 +186%
Blues vs. Stars Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Feb 04 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 04 $1 $0 +20%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 04 $2 +$3 +144%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 04 $3 +$3 +127%
Hawks vs. Heat Feb 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $151 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $1 13d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Milwaukee Brewers 64¢ $1 18d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $1 18d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $1 20d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Minnesota Twins 62¢ $1 20d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $13 20d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $41 20d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $92 20d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 52¢ $190 20d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 52¢ $70 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $182 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 74¢ $1 24d
Chisinau: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Nardi BUY Luca Nardi 70¢ $1 24d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $2 38d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $1 38d
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY All Gamers 45¢ $1 44d
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Adam Walton BUY Karen Khachanov 79¢ $2 54d
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 30¢ $1 54d
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 34¢ $1 54d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 85¢ $1 64d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Shuai Zhang vs Linda Noskova BUY Shuai Zhang 28¢ $1 64d
Oeiras 3: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Moez Echargui BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 79¢ $1 64d
Devils vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $7 82d
Panthers vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 64¢ $3 82d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Magic 90¢ $4 98d
76ers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $4 98d
Suns vs. Pacers BUY Suns 78¢ $4 98d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.41 · official $156.41 (match) · 235 history records