Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x46e2…f8bb world 298 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29,799 (+7%) realized +$28,246 · open +$1,553
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate74%217W / 75L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$1,479per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$18,636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$11,411
other 15% +$1,734
politics 12% −$135
sports 6% +$535
culture 5% +$439
crypto 2% +$13
economics 2% +$123
finance 1% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +21.0% +9.5% 68% 18% -10.0%
≤30d 76 +1.6% -8.0% 70% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 292 +5.9% -4.1% 74% 15% -6.8%
all 292 +5.9% -4.1% 74% 15% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 15% -6.8%
10% -13.3% 8% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -21.7% 5% -23.8%
20% -29.4% 4% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,669) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$128 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$18,636
Realized+$28,246
Unrealized+$1,553
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses217 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions6
Markets (closed)292 / 298
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$1,479
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $5,827 $6,105 +$278 (+5%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 89¢ 89¢ $5,349 $5,370 +$21 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 66¢ 84¢ $3,334 $4,267 +$933 (+28%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? No 97¢ 95¢ $2,153 $2,119 −$34 (-2%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 23¢ 47¢ $344 $699 +$355 (+103%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? No 90¢ 90¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $306 +$342 +112%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $248 −$215 -87%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 16 $269 −$17 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $2,231 −$55 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,986 −$24 -1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $2,420 +$32 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $3,539 +$47 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $1,964 +$36 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $405 −$405 -100%
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $360 +$40 +11%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 15 $164 −$32 -19%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $79 +$21 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $2,477 +$22 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,547 +$9 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,260 +$21 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $991 +$9 +1%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +680%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $989 +$11 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $989 +$11 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $338 −$146 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,994 +$6 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $32,000 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,587 +$14 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $395 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $782 −$38 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,273 +$13 +1%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 28? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $313 +$27 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8? Jun 09 $2,685 +$307 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2,175 −$30 -1%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7,698 +$87 +1%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7,870 +$150 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5,994 +$6 +0%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $7,372 +$128 +2%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $1,681 +$105 +6%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $94 +$5 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $2,457 +$109 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,711 +$95 +6%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $9,368 +$126 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $342 −$342 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $6,171 +$16 +0%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 07 $119 −$20 -17%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 05 $96 −$19 -19%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 05 $989 −$99 -10%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 05 $713 +$53 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $498 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 57¢ $89 9m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 34¢ $170 10m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 73¢ $155 22m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $37 22m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $1 22m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 53¢ $206 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 62¢ $116 26m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 62¢ $8 26m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 27m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 32¢ $1 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $3 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $2 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $4 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $2 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $20 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $1 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $24 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 46¢ $61 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 15¢ $1 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 15¢ $1 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 15¢ $0 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 16¢ $62 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 15¢ $8 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 19¢ $75 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 25¢ $125 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 20¢ $60 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 23¢ $11 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 20¢ $35 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 30¢ $29 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 21¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,636.44 · official $18,636.44 (match) · 3500 history records