Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46e2…96a8
crypto · 198 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$219 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$216 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses88 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)195 / 198
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 195 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$52
14 days−$216
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 62¢ 58¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 59¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$50 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$14 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$18 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $74 −$27 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $74 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$18 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$9 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$42 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$55 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$28 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$25 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$39 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$12 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$22 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$18 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$19 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$212
weather 1% +$12
other 1% −$23
sports 1% +$11
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $6 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 46% -11.6%
≤30d 195 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 39% -15.0%
≤90d 195 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 39% -15.0%
all 195 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 39% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 39% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 36% -23.2%
15% -31.3% 31% -30.6%
20% -38.1% 26% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.31 · official $38.31 (match) · 824 history records