Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

46 0x46de…5815 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$20 (+61%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+37.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+51.6%	+37.2%	62%	62%	+62.6%
≤30d	8	+51.6%	+37.2%	62%	62%	+62.6%
≤90d	8	+51.6%	+37.2%	62%	62%	+62.6%
all	8	+51.6%	+37.2%	62%	62%	+62.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.2%	62%	+62.6%
10%	+24.0%	62%	+47.1%
15%	+12.1%	62%	+32.9%
20%	+1.1%	62%	+19.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$7

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage8d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-10%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Yes	38¢	38¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$3	+$3	+114%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$3	+$6	+206%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$5	+$11	+222%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$5	+$5	+101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 10	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Jun 10	$2	+$1	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	38¢	$4	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$7	13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$3	14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5	BUY Over	32¢	$3	19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	23h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	38h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$3	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$2	5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	SELL Yes	54¢	$3	5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$4	7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.12 · official $7.12 (match) · 18 history records