Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46dd…257e sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,764 (-19%) realized −$6,764 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,038per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$363est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$760
7 days+$968
14 days−$7,473
30 days−$7,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$7,010
other 18% −$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.5% +4.5% 57% 43% +8.7%
≤30d 35 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 46% -28.1%
≤90d 35 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 46% -28.1%
all 35 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 46% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 46% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 40% -35.0%
15% -26.6% 29% -41.3%
20% -33.8% 20% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,113) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$807 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,764
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,038
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $388 −$301 -77%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $225 +$165 +73%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $848 −$624 -74%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $204 −$163 -80%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $998 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1,616 +$769 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $512 +$1,115 +218%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,118 −$2,118 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,113 −$835 -75%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,009 +$425 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,008 +$366 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,012 +$632 +62%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,223 +$66 +3%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $206 −$145 -71%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,308 −$164 -12%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,998 −$942 -31%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $510 −$28 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $236 −$236 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $506 +$287 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $909 −$393 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,196 −$3,196 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5,190 −$4,126 -80%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $377 −$18 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $306 −$22 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $205 −$2 -1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $604 +$187 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $597 +$65 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,300 +$296 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $506 −$404 -80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,013 +$723 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,011 +$585 +58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$66 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,010 +$263 +26%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $52 +$55 +106%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $798 +$172 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 13¢ $88 42m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $388 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $390 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $225 30h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 17¢ $224 30h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $848 31h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $41 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $48 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $44 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $430 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $86 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $228 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $37 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $40 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $43 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $998 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,385 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,616 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,135 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records