Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46dd…151e crypto 1528 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$463 (-1%) realized −$464 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%845W / 682L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$117
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -10.5% -19.1% 50% 49% -21.3%
≤30d 109 -10.5% -19.1% 50% 49% -21.3%
≤90d 1527 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 55% -13.2%
all 1527 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 55% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 55% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 54% -21.5%
15% -27.0% 53% -29.1%
20% -34.2% 48% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$35 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$464
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses845 / 682
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1527 / 1528
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 63¢ 74¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.45 · official $7.45 (match) · 3500 history records