trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 50% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -4.0% | -13.1% | 43% | 0% | -11.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 36% | 9% | -9.1% |
| all | 21 | +92.5% | +74.2% | 62% | 10% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +74.2% | 10% | -8.7% |
| 10% | +57.5% | 10% | -17.5% |
| 15% | +42.3% | 10% | -25.4% |
| 20% | +28.3% | 5% | -32.7% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $43 | +$1 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 27 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $11 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 24 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 23 | $14 | −$5 | -33% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 21 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 21 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 20 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 18 | $12 | +$5 | +44% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Dec 19 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +21% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 French Open? | May 28 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | May 17 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Trump meets with Carney in March? | Mar 28 | $17 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 26 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 19 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday? | Mar 16 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? | Mar 12 | $16 | $0 | +2% |