Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x46ca…67f8 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% $0
other 33% +$1
politics 8% $0
weather 7% $0
culture 6% $0
sports 5% +$2
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 83% 33% -5.3%
≤90d 18 +3.4% -6.4% 89% 11% -8.4%
all 33 +2.0% -7.7% 76% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -9.1%
10% -16.6% 3% -17.8%
15% -24.6% 3% -25.8%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage145d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 28? May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 8? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 8? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 8? Apr 28 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7? Mar 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 21? Mar 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 21 Mar 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be less than 2 Mar 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 21 be greater tha Mar 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on February 1 Feb 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 12 Feb 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 135 and 149 seats in the 20 Feb 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Folded by Kehlani be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Februa Feb 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Feb 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 1? Feb 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes a Feb 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election? Feb 01 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $2 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 98¢ $4 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 38d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 49d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $20 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 59d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 28? BUY No 98¢ $5 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $2 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 78d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 8? BUY No 99¢ $3 78d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $10 88d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 99¢ $15 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 111d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 21 BUY No 99¢ $2 125d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 21 be greater tha BUY No 99¢ $20 125d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 21? BUY No 98¢ $2 125d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $24 127d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be less than 2 BUY No 99¢ $10 127d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 12 BUY No 100¢ $34 134d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $17 134d
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 135 and 149 seats in the 20 SELL No 99¢ $17 134d
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 135 and 149 seats in the 20 BUY No 99¢ $17 136d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.34 · official $42.34 (match) · 68 history records