Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46c5…8cad crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$18 (+8%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day100.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.0% +6.8% 83% 67% +14.5%
≤30d 6 +18.0% +6.8% 83% 67% +14.5%
≤90d 6 +18.0% +6.8% 83% 67% +14.5%
all 6 +18.0% +6.8% 83% 67% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 67% +14.5%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 50% +3.5%
15% -12.8% 33% -6.5%
20% -21.3% 33% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day100.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$48 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$17 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records