Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x46c2…c651 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-16%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$87
crypto 18% $0
sports 5% $0
world 5% −$1
politics 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 0% -27.0%
all 13 -4.2% -13.3% 31% 0% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -24.0%
10% -21.6% 0% -31.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -37.9%
20% -36.1% 0% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage120d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $249 −$85 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 23? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $4 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $25 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $106 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $51 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $5 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $38 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $6 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $87 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $113 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $113 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 100d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 114d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 114d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $17 114d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $17 115d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $5 116d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $3 116d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $8 116d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 116d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 117d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $1 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records