Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x46c1…eddf world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+2%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$34
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$37
world 41% −$4
sports 14% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 0% -7.6%
all 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 0% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 0% -7.6%
10% -16.7% 0% -16.4%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.5%
20% -32.2% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$4 · ×6.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.93 per $1 lost it wins $6.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 24 $304 +$4 +1%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $313 −$8 -3%
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $313 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $308 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 10 $460 +$40 +9%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 10 $463 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $433 +$32 +7%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $429 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $308 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $304 2h
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $305 3h
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $313 6h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $313 25h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $313 26h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $308 27h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $308 28h
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 92¢ $460 13d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $47 13d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $414 13d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $463 14d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY China PR 93¢ $433 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $428 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $429 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records