Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46bd…e810
weather · 665 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses606 / 57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)663 / 665
History coverage90d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 663 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 10? No 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 2? No 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 28 $2 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26? May 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 25 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on May 1 May 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 22? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 18? May 20 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 18? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 87¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? BUY No 95¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? BUY No 89¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? BUY No 90¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 1? BUY No 93¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? BUY No 95¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 31? BUY No 94¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 30? BUY No 94¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma SELL No 31¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? BUY No 88¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma BUY No 92¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma BUY No 90¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 28? BUY No 94¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 22% -3.6%
≤30d 62 -2.8% -12.1% 89% 19% -13.6%
≤90d 663 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 29% -9.8%
all 663 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 29% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 29% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.52 · official $2.26 · 1681 history records