Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x46bd…3032 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$320 (+30%) realized +$323 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$329
other 19% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 58% +21.3%
≤30d 12 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 58% +21.3%
≤90d 12 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 58% +21.3%
all 12 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 58% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 58% +21.3%
10% -15.9% 58% +9.7%
15% -24.0% 50% -0.9%
20% -31.5% 50% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$30 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$323
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 65¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$25 +83%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $31 +$44 +146%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 24 $202 +$120 +60%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 25h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 26h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 62¢ $202 47h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $201 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $51 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.56 · official $126.56 (match) · 23 history records