Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46bc…1f30 crypto 427 markets active 4h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%419W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$31
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$62
other 7% −$94
finance 7% +$10
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 201 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 427 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.8%
all 427 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses419 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)427 / 427
History coverage69d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 427 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $49 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2168 history records