Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x46b8…8e22 crypto 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+0%) realized +$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%222W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$17
14 days+$26
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$129
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$3
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 22 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 67 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 223 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$543) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×46.78 per $1 lost it wins $46.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$606
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses222 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)223 / 225
History coverage538d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $604 $603 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $601 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $596 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $595 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $592 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $589 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $587 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $586 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $584 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $581 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $577 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $574 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $572 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $569 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $566 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $564 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 15 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $556 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $554 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $547 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $604 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $601 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $596 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $595 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $592 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $589 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $587 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $586 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $584 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $585 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $584 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $581 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $580 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $579 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $579 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $577 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $576 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $574 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $573 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $572 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $569 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $566 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $566 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $564 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $564 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $563 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $562 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $562 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $561 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.13 · official $605.82 (match) · 460 history records