Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46b8…adce politics 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$3
other 24% −$3
politics 21% −$1
crypto 9% +$1
economics 8% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 148 -0.0% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 139
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage171d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $122 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Feb 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $48 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $58 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $59 12d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $56 23d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $56 23d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 37d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 40d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 40d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 40d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $57 127d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $57 127d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 127d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 127d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 127d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 127d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $61 127d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $61 127d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $57 127d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $58 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $60 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $60 127d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 127d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 127d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 127d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 127d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 127d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 127d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $59 127d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $59 127d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $60 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.51 · official $47.51 (match) · 414 history records