Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46b6…9ba2 sports 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%24W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$14
other 21% −$4
politics 21% −$2
crypto 10% −$2
economics 7% +$1
culture 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 226 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses24 / 202
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)226 / 227
History coverage176d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $30 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 10 $24 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $307 −$2 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $221 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 26 $27 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $314 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $34 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $33 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $40 $0 -1%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 2h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 13d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 14d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $30 28d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $30 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $22 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $22 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $24 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $24 75d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $26 75d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $26 75d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $29 75d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $29 76d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 76d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $11 76d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $24 76d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 92¢ $30 76d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $32 77d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $30 77d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $30 77d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 78d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 78d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 78d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $35 80d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $35 83d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $35 84d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 84d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 84d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $30 84d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.86 · official $31.86 (match) · 800 history records