Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x46b6…99f6 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$5
other 21% +$2
sports 4% $0
weather 4% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +0.5% -9.1% 30% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +0.5% -9.1% 30% 5% -9.1%
all 44 +0.5% -9.0% 52% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -8.8%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.19 per $1 lost it wins $5.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage478d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $18 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $85 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $10 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +1%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 25 $2 $0 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 04 $4 $0 +2%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Apr 03 $18 $0 +1%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Apr 03 $1 $0 -14%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 03 $22 $0 +1%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 30 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $1 $0 -10%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $18 $0 +3%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 03 $18 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $13 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $23 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $21 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $44 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $44 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 42h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $40 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $3 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $37 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.42 · official $40.42 (match) · 126 history records