Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46b5…7d11 crypto 77 markets active 9d ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%71W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$7
world 0% $0
other 0% −$6
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 72 +6.5% -3.7% 99% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 1% -9.2%
10% -12.9% 1% -17.9%
15% -21.3% 1% -25.9%
20% -29.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses71 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage232d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? No 100¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 19? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 04 $4 $0 +4%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $216 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? Jun 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? May 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? Apr 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? Apr 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? Apr 07 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 04 $120 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 10? Mar 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 7? Mar 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 4? Mar 06 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 13? Feb 14 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on February 7? Feb 08 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on February 3? Feb 05 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $117 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Feb 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on January Jan 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $104,000 on January 23? Jan 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $122 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $104 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $97 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $95 13d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 100¢ $6 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 14d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 14d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 14d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $116 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $103 44d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $216 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $4 52d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $6 52d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $6 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $108 61d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $112 78d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $7 78d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $120 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $120 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $117 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $120 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $120 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $116 97d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $5 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $122 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.30 · official $24.30 (match) · 150 history records