Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x46b4…ac43 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 74% −$14
politics 19% −$8
other 4% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% −$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 14% 14% -5.5%
≤30d 18 +4.3% -5.6% 11% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 42 +0.9% -8.7% 24% 14% -10.2%
all 55 +0.5% -9.0% 24% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 11% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 11% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 9% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage603d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $76 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $9 +$6 +73%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $64 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 +$4 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $5 +$6 +124%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$4 +29%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $50 $0 +1%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $95 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $13,529 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 8h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $6 7d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records