Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46b4…7155 other 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 26% −$23
politics 8% −$6
economics 6% −$6
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage137d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $392 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $431 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $515 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $765 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $761 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $623 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 11h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 15h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 20h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 21h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 22h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 23h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 29h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 31h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 38h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 41h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 44h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 45h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 1433 history records