Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x46b3…d3de weather 1349 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1276 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$11,138 (+2283%) realized +$10,714 · open +$424
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate75%381W / 128L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day1276.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$410
weather 23% +$45
crypto 8% +$24
world 4% +$6
tech 4% +$18
politics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$4
sports 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1276 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 509 +73.1% +56.6% 75% 65% +19.7%
≤30d 509 +73.1% +56.6% 75% 65% +19.7%
≤90d 509 +73.1% +56.6% 75% 65% +19.7%
all 509 +73.1% +56.6% 75% 65% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1276.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.6% 65% +19.7%
10% ← realistic here +41.6% 54% +8.2%
15% +27.9% 46% -2.2%
20% +15.4% 36% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +85% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.72 per $1 lost it wins $5.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized+$10,714
Unrealized+$424
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses381 / 128
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions497
Markets (closed)509 / 1349
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day1276.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 497 History 509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $49 $82 +$33 (+67%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $77 $72 −$5 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $60 $54 −$7 (-11%)
Will George Pickens play for Houston Texans in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+2100%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Dallas Cowboys in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 46¢ $0 $17 +$17 (+4550%)
Will George Pickens play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 25¢ $1 $16 +$16 (+2994%)
Will George Pickens play for New York Giants in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 18¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1650%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 38¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+3750%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+4350%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+4350%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 42¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+4100%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 41¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+4000%)
Will Joey Bosa play for San Francisco 49ers in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 41¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+4000%)
Will George Pickens play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 38¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+3740%)
Will George Pickens play for Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $1 $12 +$11 (+1100%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will Robert Voloder win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1550%)
Will Joey Bosa play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 42¢ $0 $11 +$11 (+4150%)
Will George Pickens play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1000%)
Will George Pickens play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+900%)
Will George Pickens play for Chicago Bears in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+900%)
Will George Pickens play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+900%)
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Yes 21¢ 99¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+378%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Buffalo Bills in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4350%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Women Gaborone: Completed Match: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colal Jun 23 $0 +$7 +6155%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 +50%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 +30%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 +50%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 +75%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? Jun 23 $1 $0 +30%
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 23 $0 +$1 +120%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 23 $0 +$1 +244%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $2 $0 +10%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 23 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 73°F or below on June 23? Jun 23 $0 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $0 +$5 +1900%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 $0 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +33%
Will London have between 50-60mm of precipitation in June? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +47%
Will London have between 60-70mm of precipitation in June? Jun 23 $0 $0 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 80°F or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $0 $0 -40%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $0 $0 +25%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 +60%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +63%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 23 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 +100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 27? Jun 23 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 24 Jun 23 $0 $0 +100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $285-$290 on the final day of trading of th Jun 23 $0 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +25%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of June 22 202 Jun 23 $0 $0 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +50%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 23? Jun 23 $0 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 25? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 25? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 10m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 11m
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 20m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 20m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 20m
Will "GOAT" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 33m
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL Yes 10¢ $0 37m
Will the match not air? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 48m
Will the match not air? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 50m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 50m
Will the match not air? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 51m
Will the match not air? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 54m
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $1 55m
Will the match not air? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 57m
Will the match not air? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.03 · official $1,067.93 · 3500 history records