Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46b1…428c
sports · 110 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$8 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses59 / 32
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)91 / 110
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day183.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 19 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 48¢ 48¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Under 59¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 58¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 0.5 Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 78¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Houston Astros 63¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Knicks 50¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Knicks 51¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Spurs 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? No 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Knicks 42¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Mike Burrows: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Shane Drohan: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Shane Drohan: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -80%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +51%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Colson Montgomery: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +126%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +63%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 +$3 +53%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% +$5
other 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 18m
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 57¢ $1 41m
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 57¢ $1 42m
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Spurs 73¢ $1 42m
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $1 43m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 90¢ $1 47m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1 53m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 1h
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $1 1h
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 60¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $1 1h
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 63¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 79¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 80¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 60% -6.5%
≤30d 91 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 60% -6.5%
≤90d 91 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 60% -6.5%
all 91 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 60% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover183.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 60% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 55% -15.4%
15% -27.4% 46% -23.6%
20% -34.5% 31% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.89 · official $35.89 (match) · 353 history records