Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46b1…b392 world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$462 (-25%) realized −$390 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$46
14 days+$36
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$505
crypto 4% +$6
other 3% −$26
politics 3% −$5
finance 1% +$6
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.3% -2.0% 60% 47% +3.2%
≤30d 44 -18.3% -26.1% 55% 34% -29.6%
≤90d 46 -21.9% -29.3% 52% 33% -36.1%
all 46 -21.9% -29.3% 52% 33% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 33% -36.1%
10% -36.1% 24% -42.2%
15% -42.2% 11% -47.8%
20% -47.9% 7% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$33 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$390
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)46 / 63
History coverage43d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $28 $75 +$47 (+166%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 87¢ 90¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$3 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 95¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-15%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 77¢ 86¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 75¢ 77¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 71¢ 67¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 82¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 5¢ $27 $9 −$18 (-65%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 42¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 54¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$31 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 46¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $76 +$11 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$6 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $24 +$94 +393%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$25 +95%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $12 +$4 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $17 −$4 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $37 −$28 -77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $66 +$6 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $37 +$11 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $223 −$164 -74%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$3 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $18 +$7 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $66 +$75 +114%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $18 +$5 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $87 −$66 -75%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $13 +$3 +25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $39 −$18 -47%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $55 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $12 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 25 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 25 $24 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 25 $70 +$16 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $13 −$12 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 48m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 57m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $9 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $16 31h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $16 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $15 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $14 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $13 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $13 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $13 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $13 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 71¢ $13 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $12 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 16¢ $11 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $13 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 91¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.30 · official $286.99 (match) · 151 history records