Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x46a8…c41f other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$75 (+4%) realized +$55 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.5% +9.0% 80% 60% -5.6%
≤30d 5 +20.5% +9.0% 80% 60% -5.6%
≤90d 5 +20.5% +9.0% 80% 60% -5.6%
all 5 +20.5% +9.0% 80% 60% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 60% -5.6%
10% -1.4% 60% -14.6%
15% -11.0% 60% -22.9%
20% -19.7% 40% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$200 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.42 · official $120.42 (match) · 10 history records