Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46a7…9c1d other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 20% −$17
culture 9% −$8
politics 8% −$3
crypto 7% −$4
economics 7% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $593 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $792 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $346 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $631 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $128 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $377 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 3h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 4h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 6h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 7h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 10h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 12h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 13h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 19h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 22h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 23h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 31h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 32h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 36h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 38h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.00 · official $55.00 (match) · 1280 history records