Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46a6…dac3 other 256 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%21W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 24% −$20
politics 10% −$9
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$5
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses21 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage137d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $143 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $345 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $896 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $389 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $389 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $331 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $319 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $316 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $310 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $360 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $139 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $365 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $372 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $60 6h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 19h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $61 19h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $61 21h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 23h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 24h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 24h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 28h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 32h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 37h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 47h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1383 history records