Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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46 0x46a4…eb7c crypto 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%117W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$309
14 days−$287
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$9
other 5% −$6
politics 2% −$10
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$3
sports 0% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -72.9% -75.4% 12% 11% -76.3%
≤30d 250 -14.3% -22.4% 34% 33% -14.2%
≤90d 293 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 37% -12.9%
all 293 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 37% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 37% -12.9%
10% -27.8% 29% -21.3%
15% -34.8% 24% -28.9%
20% -41.1% 22% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses117 / 176
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)293 / 294
History coverage46d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$5 +247%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$7 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 36m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 37m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 37m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 51m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 11¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 43h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $1 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.05 · official $1.05 (match) · 919 history records