Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46a3…338f other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized +$3 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate64%28W / 16L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$657per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$1,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$250
crypto 27% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 25% 25% -12.5%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 22% -13.0%
all 44 +0.1% -9.4% 64% 16% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 16% -10.0%
10% -18.1% 5% -18.6%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,120) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$82 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$1,288
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses28 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage157d
Avg bet$657
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $785 $735 −$50 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $140 $144 +$4 (+3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 79¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 83¢ 82¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 78¢ 78¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 28¢ 27¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $416 −$24 -6%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 09 $2,251 −$168 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $576 −$52 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 09 $568 −$106 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $456 +$112 +24%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 04 $1,120 −$73 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $347 +$133 +38%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 28 $277 −$20 -7%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 14 $500 −$51 -10%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 20 $684 −$146 -21%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 18 $699 −$15 -2%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 17 $612 +$87 +14%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 16 $1,331 +$113 +8%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 13 $832 −$214 -26%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Feb 18 $476 −$21 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 13 $445 +$31 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 11 $438 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 07 $136 −$51 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 07 $112 +$24 +22%
Tria FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 03 $24 +$4 +17%
Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 03 $78 +$5 +7%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 03 $50 +$9 +19%
Will $MARU reach $1B in Q1? Feb 03 $36 +$7 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 24 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 24 $155 $0 +0%
Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jan 24 $198 +$6 +3%
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 24 $208 $0 +0%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 24 $1,385 +$101 +7%
Immunefi FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 23 $180 +$4 +2%
ETHGAS FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 22 $762 +$34 +4%
ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 22 $624 +$60 +10%
ETHGAS FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 22 $782 −$7 -1%
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 22 $754 +$2 +0%
Elsa FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 21 $2,178 +$36 +2%
Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 21 $1,383 +$83 +6%
Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 21 $1,341 +$124 +9%
Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 21 $513 −$9 -2%
Elsa FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 21 $472 +$41 +9%
Seeker FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 21 $474 +$10 +2%
Seeker FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 21 $372 +$25 +7%
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 20 $2,191 +$18 +1%
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? Jan 20 $466 −$359 -77%
Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 20 $2,146 +$45 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $2,601 +$10 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $40 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $50 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $50 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $392 5h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 28¢ $22 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $260 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $518 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $297 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $145 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $156 2d
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $437 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 54¢ $524 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 56¢ $576 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 72¢ $461 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $118 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 86¢ $568 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $568 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $148 21d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $148 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $126 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $127 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $111 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $51 27d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $162 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $255 28d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $257 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.06 · official $1,288.06 (match) · 169 history records