Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46a0…79f0 crypto 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$511 (-40%) realized −$478 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%100W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$177
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$489
crypto 23% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -21.0% -28.6% 45% 45% -49.9%
≤30d 220 -21.0% -28.6% 45% 45% -49.9%
≤90d 221 -21.4% -28.9% 45% 44% -55.7%
all 227 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 44% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 44% -48.9%
10% -36.4% 42% -53.8%
15% -42.6% 39% -58.3%
20% -48.2% 33% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$478
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses100 / 127
Open positions6
Markets (closed)227 / 233
History coverage138d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-40%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $21 $1 −$20 (-93%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +225%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.52 · official $19.17 (match) · 428 history records