Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

46 0x46a0…8322 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$203per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-17.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	6	-8.8%	-17.5%	50%	17%	-7.9%
all	6	-8.8%	-17.5%	50%	17%	-7.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.5%	17%	-7.9%
10%	-25.4%	17%	-16.7%
15%	-32.6%	17%	-24.8%
20%	-39.2%	0%	-32.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$41 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage

Net worth$228

Realized+$22

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage86d

Avg bet$203

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	No	95¢	95¢	$228	$228	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Casa Pia AC (-2.5)	May 06	$457	+$23	+5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab	May 03	$458	$0	+0%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5)	Apr 19	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	Apr 19	$19	$0	+0%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	Apr 19	$128	+$2	+1%
Ukraine vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Mar 30	$92	+$38	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$228	1h
Spread: Casa Pia AC (-2.5)	BUY CD Tondela	95¢	$457	47d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab	SELL No	97¢	$458	47d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab	BUY No	97¢	$458	47d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5)	BUY Kasımpaşa SK	5¢	$21	61d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5)	BUY Kasımpaşa SK	5¢	$20	61d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	SELL Yes	2¢	$9	61d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	SELL Yes	2¢	$9	61d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	61d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	61d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	BUY Germany	99¢	$128	80d
Ukraine vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$92	85d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.00 · official $228.00 (match) · 15 history records