Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x469e…3123 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$62 (+10%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$47
crypto 9% +$15
politics 5% +$9
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 40 +3.7% -6.1% 52% 50% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 50% -0.5%
10% -15.1% 45% -10.0%
15% -23.3% 32% -18.7%
20% -30.8% 30% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage218d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Islanders vs. Stars Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Devils vs. Lightning Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah vs. Sharks Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bruins vs. Ducks Nov 20 $5 +$3 +61%
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Nov 20 $7 +$4 +61%
Hurricanes vs. Wild Nov 20 $5 +$8 +163%
Flames vs. Sabres Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Nov 20 $5 +$4 +89%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Nov 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Kings vs. Thunder Nov 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Nov 20 $7 +$6 +89%
Rangers vs. Golden Knights Nov 19 $5 +$4 +82%
Flames vs. Blackhawks Nov 19 $5 +$5 +108%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Nov 19 $5 +$8 +163%
Celtics vs. Nets Nov 19 $15 +$3 +19%
Blue Jackets vs. Jets Nov 18 $10 $0 -3%
Utah vs. Ducks Nov 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Nov 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Hornets vs. Raptors Nov 18 $18 +$5 +30%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 18 $5 −$2 -36%
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks Nov 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Kings vs. Spurs Nov 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Nov 17 $22 +$29 +133%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nov 16 $21 +$23 +108%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Nov 15 $34 +$9 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 14 $55 +$15 +27%
Sabres vs. Avalanche Nov 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Stars vs. Canadiens Nov 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $22 −$4 -17%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $8 +$13 +162%
Will the government shutdown end November 11? Nov 12 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $129 +$37 +29%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $50 −$15 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 14¢ $1 28h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Oilers vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 53¢ $5 207d
Flames vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 59¢ $5 207d
Bruins vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 62¢ $5 207d
Hurricanes vs. Wild BUY Wild 38¢ $5 207d
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers BUY Bulls 62¢ $7 207d
Kings vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 93¢ $10 207d
Nuggets vs. Pelicans BUY Nuggets 89¢ $9 207d
Hornets vs. Pacers BUY Hornets 54¢ $7 207d
Rockets vs. Cavaliers BUY Rockets 53¢ $7 207d
Suns vs. Trail Blazers SELL Suns 100¢ $13 208d
Flames vs. Blackhawks BUY Blackhawks 48¢ $5 208d
Rangers vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 55¢ $5 208d
Devils vs. Lightning BUY Devils 40¢ $5 208d
Utah vs. Sharks BUY Utah 56¢ $10 208d
Blues vs. Maple Leafs BUY Blues 50¢ $10 208d
Blue Jackets vs. Jets SELL Blue Jackets 37¢ $10 208d
Blue Jackets vs. Jets BUY Blue Jackets 38¢ $10 208d
Islanders vs. Stars BUY Stars 63¢ $5 208d
Grizzlies vs. Spurs BUY Grizzlies 32¢ $1 208d
Celtics vs. Nets BUY Celtics 84¢ $15 208d
Utah vs. Ducks SELL Ducks 96¢ $10 209d
Hornets vs. Raptors SELL Raptors 99¢ $23 209d
Knicks vs. Heat SELL Knicks 31¢ $3 209d
Utah vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 49¢ $5 209d
Suns vs. Trail Blazers BUY Suns 38¢ $5 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.84 · official $9.84 (match) · 101 history records