Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x469e…6374 other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$18
14 days−$32
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$47
sports 26% −$23
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
economics 7% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage132d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $324 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $157 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $458 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $652 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $395 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $278 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $534 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $163 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $550 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $144 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $390 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $297 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $203 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $314 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $55 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $55 5h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 7h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 10h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 10h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 11h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 14h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 15h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 17h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 20h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 27h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 28h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 33h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 35h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 37h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 38h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 39h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 44h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 46h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1421 history records