Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x469d…649f
politics · 60 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses7 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage228d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $135 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $1 $0 -50%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $2 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $2 $0 -11%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $67 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $1 $0 -50%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 2026 Portugal presidential election Jan 02 $1 $0 -50%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $73 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $74 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $74 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$3
sports 35% −$4
other 10% −$2
world 4% −$2
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 38h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 12d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 28d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 98d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $65 103d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $65 105d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 117d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 120d
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 124d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 124d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 126d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 132d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 133d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $66 135d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $67 136d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 137d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 137d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 137d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 137d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 138d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 138d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 139d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $69 140d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $69 141d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $69 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.7% -18.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 59 -11.5% -19.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -27.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -34.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -41.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.63 · official $3.63 (match) · 282 history records