Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x469c…75d9 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
other 21% +$2
politics 18% $0
economics 8% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.5% -16.4% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 18 -2.9% -12.1% 39% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 -2.9% -12.1% 39% 0% -9.8%
all 52 -1.8% -11.1% 35% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage315d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $79 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15 Aug 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 13? Aug 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 13 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 11 $60 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 10 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $10 $0 -3%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $27 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $2 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records