Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x469c…309b
politics · 37 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$1,168 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,776 · open −$1,086
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 46 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,776
7 days+$1,776
14 days+$1,776
30 days+$1,776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $941 $979 +$39 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $800 $786 −$14 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $714 $666 −$48 (-7%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $510 $488 −$22 (-4%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $454 $363 −$91 (-20%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $349 $336 −$13 (-4%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $421 $304 −$117 (-28%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $465 $291 −$174 (-37%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 45¢ 30¢ $419 $285 −$134 (-32%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $292 $283 −$10 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No $256 $280 +$24 (+9%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $240 $271 +$31 (+13%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $236 $240 +$4 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $238 $237 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No $454 $219 −$235 (-52%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $196 $186 −$10 (-5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $183 $185 +$2 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $178 $171 −$7 (-4%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $200 $164 −$37 (-18%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 97¢ 97¢ $154 $154 +$0 (+0%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $260 $146 −$114 (-44%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $143 $141 −$2 (-1%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $198 $135 −$63 (-32%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $138 $129 −$9 (-7%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $452 +$477 +106%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 12 $66 −$150 -226%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 12 $77 −$6 -8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $80 +$153 +192%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $155 +$222 +144%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $92 +$147 +160%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,159 +$928 +80%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 10 $321 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% −$528
tech 22% −$16
politics 21% −$199
world 18% +$1,203
economics 6% −$53
sports 1% −$1
culture 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 2m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 2m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 2m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 6m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 6m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 10m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 10m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 10m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 10m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 13m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 13m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 13m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $31 15m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 15m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $29 16m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $31 16m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $31 16m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 54¢ $32 17m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 53¢ $31 17m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 52¢ $31 17m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $30 17m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 18m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 18m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 49¢ $15 18m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 49¢ $14 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+55.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +71.8% +55.5% 75% 62% +60.5%
≤30d 8 +71.8% +55.5% 75% 62% +60.5%
≤90d 8 +71.8% +55.5% 75% 62% +60.5%
all 8 +71.8% +55.5% 75% 62% +60.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover710.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +55.5% 62% +60.5%
10% ← realistic here +40.6% 62% +45.1%
15% +27.0% 62% +31.1%
20% +14.5% 62% +18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,512.32 · official $8,511.96 (match) · 3500 history records