Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x469a…438d politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+4%) realized +$47 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$4
politics 23% +$3
sports 12% $0
other 9% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 7 +116.3% +95.7% 57% 14% -6.6%
≤90d 10 +174.8% +148.6% 50% 20% -1.1%
all 32 +61.3% +45.9% 41% 9% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.9% 9% -5.1%
10% +32.0% 9% -14.2%
15% +19.2% 9% -22.5%
20% +7.5% 9% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +123% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage308d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 76¢ $79 $74 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $64 +$3 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $75 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $31 +$3 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $83 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $69 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $64 −$9 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $4 +$37 +947%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $1 +$2 +218%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 31 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 10 $4 $0 -11%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 02 $38 $0 +1%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 20 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $79 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $6 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $60 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $64 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $77 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $75 14h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $83 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $83 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $34 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $69 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $5 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $6 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $55 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $64 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $41 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $40 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $40 31d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 91d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $6 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.34 · official $74.48 (match) · 75 history records